S&P Global Ratings on Monday retained its forecast of 9 per cent contraction in the Indian economy for the current fiscal, saying even though there are now upside risks to growth but it will wait for more signs that COVID infections have stabilised or fallen. S&P, in its report on Asia Pacific, projected the Indian economy to grow at 10 per cent in the next fiscal.
Bulls might be on the rampage on Dalal Street but lofty valuations of the Indian equities present a reason for concern and the markets could perhaps witness up to 10 per cent correction, according to analysts. Benchmark indices have been on a record-breaking rally lately and August witnessed the stock market reaching many new highs. The BSE benchmark soared over 9 per cent last month.
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) on Wednesday announced to increase the policy repo rate by 50 basis points to 4.9 per cent, the second hike in five weeks aimed at quelling the inflation. The MPC vote was unanimous and has decided to keep stance withdrawal from accommodative, RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das said in a press conference on Wednesday. The decision was taken during a three-day meeting of the RBI's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) to review the interest rates in the country. The MPC voted unanimously to increase the policy repo rate by 50 bps to 4.90 per cent," Das said.
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In a bull-case scenario it sees the Sensex at 61,000 levels, while it's bear case scenario pegs the Sensex at 41,000 levels by December 2021.
Heightened geopolitical uncertainties will lead the Reserve Bank's rate-setting panel to opt for a status quo at the next week's meeting, Axis Bank's chief economist Saugata Bhattacharya said on Monday. Bhattacharya said he had earlier expected a tightening action at the policy meet scheduled for April 6-8 but the increased uncertainties on the geopolitical front due to the Russian invasion of Ukraine and its impact on commodity prices makes him now think that RBI will defer such an action. He said the central bank's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) may hike rates in the second half of FY23 by up to 0.50 per cent.
After consumer price index jumped the 6.3-per cent mark in May and wholesale inflation set a record of 12.94 per cent, house economists at Swiss brokerage UBS Securities have warned that the country is facing more upside risks on the inflation front that is set to averaging at 5 per cent for the year. Rising prices of edible oils and protein rich items pushed retail inflation to a six-month high of 6.3 per cent in May, breaching the comfort level of the Reserve Bank and thus rendering reduction in interest rates a difficult proposition in the near term. Led by petrol price, that has crossed the Rs 100-mark in many states, wholesale inflation too accelerated to a record 12.94 per cent in May. While crude oil has crossed $70 a barrel on account of rising prices of crude oil and manufactured goods due to spike in commodities, and the low base of last year due to the lockdown.
Morgan Stanley Sales & Trading, US, believes the stock is better value for money than others and has a upside as high as 73 per cent. A slowdown in the economy has hit demand and led to a fall in overall consumption in an auto market which till recently was one of the fastest growing in the world.
Investing in unlisted shares is not difficult. At any given point, many investors and employees are willing to sell their holdings because they need money. Buyers can negotiate a price with them, suggests Sarbajeet K Sen.
Wade will instead head to New Zealand with Australia's Twenty20 squad for a five-match series starting on Feb. 22 in Christchurch.
'Any normalisation exercise will bring its share of volatility.'
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'The term 'pro-growth' must be qualified somewhat because, while a rising tide will lift all boats, it will not necessarily do so equally.'
Tesla Inc chief Elon Musk is set to acquire micro-blogging site Twitter for about $44 billion. Back home, India Inc, too, is seeing aggressive merger and acquisition (M&A) activity with PVR-Inox and HDFC-HDFC Bank announcing their mergers recently. While Axis Bank recently acquired Citi India's India retail business, reports suggest Larsen & Toubro Infotech (LTI) and Mindtree could be eyeing a merger.
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The FPI holding in India's top 100 companies, which are part of the Nifty 100 index, declined to 24.23 per cent on average at the end of March this year, from a high of 27.5 per cent at the end of March 2021. This is the lowest FPI holdings in India's top listed companies in at least three years. A general sell-off by FPIs has weighed on stock prices and the benchmark S&P BSE Sensex is down 8.5 per cent, from its 52-week high made in October 2021. Most analysts expect FPI flows to remain weak in FY23 as well, given rising bond yields in the US and an expected earnings slowdown in India due to high inflation and commodity prices.
'At this moment, investors should look for relative value within sectors and clear visibility (third-wave-or-not) on earnings delivery.'
Thar fails to ignite any excitement on screen, sighs Sukanya Verma.
Moody's on Thursday upped India's growth projection for the next financial year beginning April 1, to 13.7 per cent, from 10.8 per cent estimated earlier, on the back of normalisation of activity and growing confidence in the market with the rollout of COVID-19 vaccine. For current fiscal, the US-based rating agency expects the economy to contract 7 per cent, lower than its previous estimate of 10.6 per cent contraction.
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Indian drug firms get a shot in the arm in the $12 bn Australian drug market as the Therapeutic Goods Administration (TGA), Australia agrees to accelerate the drug approval process in that country for Indian players who already have an approved plant and product from one of the stringent regulatory authorities like US, EU or Canada. From current sales of $340 mn, the Indian firms can see a significant upside in sales; felt Dinesh Dua, former chairman of the Pharmaceutical Exports Promotion Council of India (Pharmexcil), and the MD of Nectar Lifesciences. He highlighted that only 12 percent of the Australian drug market is generic, as against 80-90 per cent in the US or EU. Of this $1.5 bn generic drug market in India, Indian companies have a small share.
'A soft landing of the Indian economy would be a long-term positive for the equity markets.'
As bodies are being continually pulled out of the muck-filled power project tunnel in Tapovan, the atmosphere outside is getting grimmer with families of the missing people losing hope of seeing them alive.
Despite the current bout of volatility, debt-oriented hybrid funds remain well suited for risk-averse investors.
Swiss brokerage Credit Suisse expects the economy to continue to show positive surprises and record up to 9 per cent growth in the next fiscal. For the current financial year too, the brokerage anticipates growth to be higher than the consensus forecast of 8.4-9.5 per cent, and printing in at around 10.5 per cent. As a policy, Credit Suisse does not provide absolute growth numbers in its forecast.
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Cairns feels his sporting career is helping his recovery as he hopes to be able to walk again.
Reserve Bank Governor Shaktikanta Das on Wednesday ruled out upside risks to the 5.3 per cent inflation forecast for the current fiscal, saying the recent cut in excise duty on diesel and petrol as well as better management of supply-side issues on the food front have contained inflationary expectations. These measures are significantly positive for inflation management, he said. After months of calls for reducing taxes on fuels, the government, last week, cut the excise duty on diesel and petrol by Rs 10 and Rs 5 per litre, respectively.
'From our perspective, it will bring additional customers and from their perspective, it will get them younger customers.'
'For equities, inflation trending upwards but within the range of expectations can actually be a big positive as it helps earnings and may shift flows from bonds to equities.'
While Mukesh Ambani-led RIL posted a 108 per cent YoY rise in profit after tax for Q4FY21 at Rs 13,227 crore, it fell short of Bloomberg estimate of Rs 13,704 crore.
As the FM said, this is a Budget that lays the foundation for the next 25 years, observes Kumar Mangalam Birla.
As India looks to mend its Covid-battered economy, one thing that will grab the attention of all concerned is the path that both wholesale and retail inflation will follow. Even the Reserve Bank of India in its latest policy statement said, "Going forward, the inflation trajectory is likely to be shaped by uncertainties impinging on the upside and the downside.
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